Where the market is wrong on Hoek v Almere City II
Hoek meet Almere City II in the Tweede Divisie regular season - 6 at Sportpark Denoek, Hoek.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Hoek, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Almere City II on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
Hoek arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Barendrecht, L 1-2 @ RKAV Volendam, L 0-2 v Spakenburg, D 1-1 @ Katwijk.
Almere City II are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Spakenburg, L 2-3 @ Katwijk, L 1-2 v Koninklijke HFC, L 1-2 @ HHC.
Hoek hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Hoek 4-0 Almere City II.
The market prices HOE at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Almere City II: a 5.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
