Where the market is wrong on SKA Rostov v Zenit Penza
SKA Rostov meet Zenit Penza in the Cup round of 64. The model makes SKA Rostov the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% SKA, 30% draw, 28% ZEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans SKA Rostov, 53% against 35%. Attacking output favors SKA Rostov on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans SKA Rostov at 60%; double chance reads SKA Rostov or draw 72%, Zenit Penza or draw 58%.
SKA Rostov arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Dynamo Makhachkala II, L 1-5 @ Spartak Nalchik, W 1-0 v Pobeda, W 2-0 @ Alaniya Vladikavkaz II.
Zenit Penza are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Rotor-2, L 1-2 v Salyut-Belgorod, W 3-1 v Orel, L 1-9 @ Rodina Moskva III.
The market prices SKA at 75% implied. Our number sits apart on Zenit Penza: a 19.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
