Where the market is wrong on Caernarfon Town v The New Saints
Caernarfon Town meet The New Saints in the Premier League regular season - 6 at The Oval, Caernarfon.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans The New Saints, 70% against 57%. Attacking output favors Caernarfon Town on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans The New Saints at 62%; double chance reads Caernarfon Town or draw 56%, The New Saints or draw 73%.
Caernarfon Town arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-3 @ Holywell, W 2-0 @ Trefelin, W 3-0 v Colwyn Bay, L 1-2 v Penybont.
The New Saints are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 13 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Colwyn Bay, W 5-0 @ Cardiff MET, W 1-0 v Briton Ferry, W 2-0 v Haverfordwest County AFC.
The New Saints hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 1 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Caernarfon Town 0-4 The New Saints.
The market prices CAE at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on Caernarfon Town: a 10.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
