Where the market is wrong on Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna
Villarreal meet Deportivo La Coruna in the La Liga regular season - 4 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Deportivo La Coruna, 70% against 57%. Attacking output favors Villarreal on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.5 per match.
Villarreal arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Alaves, D 2-2 @ Atletico Madrid, D 2-2 @ Racing Santander, W 2-1 @ Galatasaray.
Deportivo La Coruna are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Valencia, D 1-1 @ Malaga, D 1-1 v Elche, L 0-1 v Real Madrid.
Villarreal hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2018: Deportivo La Coruna 2-4 Villarreal.
The market prices VIL at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on Deportivo La Coruna: a 24.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
