Rayo Vallecano v Alaves: the model read
Rayo Vallecano meet Alaves in the La Liga regular season - 2 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid. The model makes Rayo Vallecano the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% RAY, 30% draw, 30% ALA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Rayo Vallecano, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Alaves on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Rayo Vallecano at 56%; double chance reads Rayo Vallecano or draw 70%, Alaves or draw 60%.
Rayo Vallecano arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Heart Of Midlothian, L 0-1 @ Crystal Palace, W 2-1 @ Alaves, W 2-0 v Villarreal.
Alaves are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Eibar, L 1-2 v Rayo Vallecano, W 1-0 @ Oviedo, W 1-0 v Barcelona.
Rayo Vallecano hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 3 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
