Where the market is wrong on Leganes v Castellón
Leganes meet Castellón in the Segunda División regular season - 7 at Municipal de Butarque, Leganes.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Castellón, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Castellón on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.8 per match.
Leganes arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Castellón, W 3-2 v Granada CF, L 0-2 @ Tenerife, D 0-0 @ Las Palmas.
Castellón are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Leganes, W 5-0 v Tenerife, W 2-1 @ Girona, W 2-0 v Albacete.
The market prices LEG at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
