Where the market is wrong on Castellón v Sabadell
Castellón meet Sabadell in the Segunda División regular season - 2 at Estadio Municipal de Castalia, Castellon.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 55%. Attacking output favors Castellón on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Sabadell at 51%; double chance reads Castellón or draw 65%, Sabadell or draw 66%.
Castellón arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Sabadell, W 1-0 @ Real Sociedad II, L 1-3 v Levante, D 0-0 @ Hércules.
Sabadell are steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 5 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Castellón, D 0-0 @ Sporting Gijon, W 3-0 @ Olot, D 2-2 @ Girona.
Castellón hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Castellón 0-0 Sabadell.
The market prices CAS at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Sabadell: a 17.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
