Derby v Cardiff: the model read
Derby meet Cardiff in the Championship regular season - 2 at Pride Park, Derby.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Cardiff, 60% against 45%. Attacking output favors Cardiff on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.4 per match.
Derby arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Portsmouth, L 0-3 v Swansea, D 2-2 v Cardiff, L 1-2 @ Charlton.
Cardiff are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ QPR, D 2-2 v Sheffield Utd, L 1-2 v Norwich, D 2-2 @ Derby.
Cardiff hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
