Where the market is wrong on Mixco v Guastatoya
Mixco meet Guastatoya in the Liga Nacional regular season - 5.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Mixco on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Guastatoya at 54%; double chance reads Mixco or draw 62%, Guastatoya or draw 68%.
Mixco arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Alianza FC, W 4-2 v Guastatoya, W 4-1 v UMECIT, L 2-3 @ Cobán Imperial.
Guastatoya are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Mixco, W 1-0 v Municipal, L 0-2 @ Antigua GFC, W 4-0 v Malacateco.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mixco 4-2 Guastatoya.
The market prices MIX at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Guastatoya: a 16.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
