Where the market is wrong on Coventry v Newcastle
Coventry meet Newcastle in the Premier League regular season - 6 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 53%. Attacking output favors Coventry on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
Coventry arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Nottingham Forest, L 1-3 v Aston Villa, L 0-5 v Brighton, L 0-1 @ Manchester City.
Newcastle are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Hull City, L 1-4 @ Leeds, W 1-0 @ Millwall, D 2-2 v Bournemouth.
The market prices COV at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Coventry: a 12.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
