Benfica v FC ST. Gallen

Benfica meet FC ST. Gallen in the UEFA Europa League 2nd qualifying round. The model makes Benfica the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% BEN, 28% draw, 31% FC .

The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 73%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 72%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Benfica at 56%; double chance reads Benfica or draw 69%, FC ST. Gallen or draw 60%.

Benfica arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v CF Os Belenenses, L 1-2 @ FC ST. Gallen, W 2-0 v Villarreal, L 1-2 v Flamengo.

FC ST. Gallen are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v FC Zurich, W 2-1 v Benfica, L 0-3 v Norwich, L 3-6 @ Lyon.

FC ST. Gallen hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC ST. Gallen 2-1 Benfica.

The market prices BEN at 78% implied. Our number sits apart on FC ST. Gallen: a 23.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.