Kelty Hearts 0-3 Dunfermline
The data shows this was a contest decided by Dunfermline's ruthless efficiency in front of goal. The visitors took their chances with clinical precision, scoring three times from a controlled performance, while Kelty Hearts struggled to create meaningful danger. The Lemeister model had entered the match with Dunfermline as favourites at 46 per cent, and the final scoreline validated that pre-match read.
Dunfermline opened the scoring through C. Gilmour in the 10th minute. This early goal gave the visitors a platform from which they could dictate the tempo. The score remained 1-0 until the 65th minute, when K. Bray doubled the lead. Bray then completed his brace seven minutes later, scoring again in the 72nd minute to put the result beyond any doubt. All three goals were normal goals from open play, with no assists recorded in the data.
The underlying numbers reinforce the story of the scoreboard. Dunfermline dominated possession with 63 per cent, a figure that reflects their control of the midfield areas. They also registered 14 shots to Kelty Hearts' five, and put eight of those on target compared to only two from the home side. Expected goals tell a similar tale: Dunfermline's 2.8 xG dwarfs Kelty's 0.5, indicating the away side created both quantity and quality of chances while limiting their opponents to speculative efforts.
Passing accuracy further illustrates the gap. Dunfermline completed 89 per cent of their passes, a high mark that suggests they were comfortable in possession and rarely forced into risky deliveries. Kelty Hearts managed only 74 per cent, often playing aimless balls under pressure. Corners were five to one in Dunfermline's favour, though they did not score directly from a set piece. No cards were issued in the match, which points to a disciplined contest with few disruptions.
K. Bray's match rating of 8.9 was the highest on the pitch, and with good reason. His two goals from three shots on target defined the second half. C. Gilmour earned a 7.6 rating, having opened the scoring and contributed to the flow of the game. Neither player had an assist, which reflects that both goalscorers created their own opportunities. The Dunfermline goalkeeper was not required to produce any saves in the data, which underscores the lack of threat Kelty generated.
For Kelty Hearts, this was a frustrating afternoon. They managed just two shots on target from five attempts, and their single best chance, according to the xG breakdown, was only worth 0.2. Their passing accuracy of 74 per cent made it difficult to build sustained attacks, and they failed to earn a single corner until the 78th minute. The home side made seven substitutions, but the data does not contain any rating information for those who came on.
In the context of Club Friendlies, this result will give Dunfermline useful momentum. The clean sheet and three goals, all from open play and spread across the match, suggest their attacking patterns are functioning effectively. For Kelty Hearts, the main concern will be the lack of a credible offensive threat. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 away win, so Dunfermline's actual 3-0 victory represents a more emphatic outcome than expected, driven by the finishing of K. Bray and the overall control of the match from the first minute.
