Where the market is wrong on NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen meet Excelsior in the Eredivisie regular season - 3 at Goffertstadion, Nijmegen.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Excelsior, 57% against 43%. Attacking output favors Excelsior on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.7 per match.
NEC Nijmegen arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ PEC Zwolle, L 0-3 @ Bodo/Glimt, L 1-3 v Bodo/Glimt, W 4-1 @ Willem II.
Excelsior are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 17 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Sparta Rotterdam, L 1-2 v PSV Eindhoven, W 4-0 @ Cambuur, W 5-1 @ De Graafschap.
NEC Nijmegen hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen.
The market prices NEC at 67% implied. Our number sits apart on Excelsior: a 29.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
