Where the market is wrong on Lazio v Genoa
Lazio meet Genoa in the Serie A regular season - 2 at Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
Lazio rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1466. Recent form leans Lazio, 68% against 43%. Attacking output favors Lazio on expected goals, 1.8 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Lazio at 68%; double chance reads Lazio or draw 77%, Genoa or draw 51%.
Lazio arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Genoa, W 1-0 @ Bologna, L 0-2 v Mantova, W 2-1 @ Frosinone.
Genoa are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Lazio, L 0-2 v Napoli, W 4-1 v Ascoli, L 0-1 v Deportivo La Coruna.
Lazio hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 2 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lazio 1-0 Genoa.
The market prices LAZ at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Lazio: a 7.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
