Jaguares v Alianza Valledupar: the model read
Jaguares meet Alianza Valledupar in the Primera A clausura - 12 at Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, Monteria.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 38%. Attacking output favors Jaguares on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.0 per match.
Jaguares arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Alianza Valledupar, L 1-2 @ Independiente Medellin, D 2-2 v Fortaleza FC, D 3-3 @ Junior.
Alianza Valledupar are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Jaguares, L 1-4 v Santa Fe, W 2-1 @ Chico, W 1-0 v Junior.
The market prices JAG at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Alianza Valledupar: a 2.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
