Once Caldas v Cucuta

Once Caldas meet Cucuta in the Primera A clausura - 1 at Estadio Palogrande, Manizales. The model makes Once Caldas the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% ONC, 29% draw, 25% CUC.

Once Caldas rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1400. Recent form leans Once Caldas, 63% against 38%. Attacking output favors Once Caldas on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.0 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Once Caldas at 65%; double chance reads Once Caldas or draw 75%, Cucuta or draw 54%.

Once Caldas arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Envigado, D 2-2 @ Junior, L 0-1 v Junior, W 1-0 v Atletico Nacional.

Cucuta are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Independiente Medellin, D 0-0 v Fortaleza FC, D 0-0 v Leones FC, D 1-1 @ Orsomarso.

The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cucuta 1-2 Once Caldas.

The market prices ONC at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Cucuta: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.