Where the market is wrong on UCV Moquegua v Sporting Cristal
UCV Moquegua meet Sporting Cristal in the Primera División clausura - 9 at Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua.
Sporting Cristal rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Sporting Cristal, 55% against 35%. Attacking output favors Sporting Cristal on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.8 per match.
UCV Moquegua arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Sporting Cristal, L 0-2 @ Cusco, L 1-4 v Alianza Atletico, L 0-2 @ ADT.
Sporting Cristal are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ UCV Moquegua, W 5-0 v Club Deportivo Los Chankas, L 0-1 @ Sport Boys, W 4-1 v Sport Huancayo.
The market prices UCV at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
