Peterhead v Kilmarnock

Peterhead meet Kilmarnock in the League Cup group stage at Balmoor, Peterhead. The model makes Kilmarnock the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 32% PET, 30% draw, 38% KIL.

The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kilmarnock, 65% against 48%. Attacking output favors Kilmarnock on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Kilmarnock at 54%; double chance reads Peterhead or draw 62%, Kilmarnock or draw 68%.

Peterhead arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Kilmarnock, L 0-1 @ Raith Rovers, W 3-1 @ Elgin City, L 0-1 v Hamilton Academical.

Kilmarnock are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 5 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Peterhead, W 1-0 v Hamilton Academical, W 1-0 @ Elgin City, D 0-0 v Raith Rovers.

Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Peterhead 0-0 Kilmarnock.

The market prices PET at 11% implied. Our number sits apart on Peterhead: a 20.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.