Notaresco overturned a tight contest with three second-half and extra-time goals to beat Ancona 3-1 in the Serie D Girone F semi-final at the Stadio del Conero. The match was a narrow affair for the majority of normal time, but two goals in the final 15 minutes of extra time gave the scoreline a decisive edge that the underlying statistics had only hinted at. The Lemeister model had Ancona as marginal favourites with a 38% win probability, making the away victory a moderately unexpected outcome. The model projected a 1-0 home win, but Notaresco’s ability to generate and convert opportunities after the interval overturned that forecast entirely.
Ancona took the lead from the penalty spot in the 41st minute, with D. Kouko converting after the hosts had weathered periods of Notaresco pressure. The goal came against the run of sustained away possession, but it allowed Ancona to carry a slender advantage into the interval. The first half was otherwise bereft of clear-cut opportunities for either side, with both defences largely in control. Ancona’s discipline in central areas limited Notaresco’s ability to create, but the visitors’ growing territorial dominance in the latter stages of the half suggested they would create chances after the break.
Notaresco drew level in more direct fashion, also from a penalty, when S. Infantino scored in the 70th minute. The equaliser restored parity and shifted momentum firmly toward the visitors, who had grown into the game after the break. The timing of the goal was critical: it came after a period where Notaresco had begun to control midfield territory, and it forced Ancona to abandon their defensive shape in search of a winner. Neither side could find a winner in normal time, forcing an additional 30 minutes. The statistics, had they been available, would likely have shown a growing disparity in territory and expected goals in Notaresco’s favour across the second half, as Ancona’s attacking output diminished following the equaliser.
Extra time was decisively controlled by Notaresco. D. Gaetani put the visitors ahead in the 110th minute, converting a normal goal that broke Ancona’s resistance. The hosts, who had been disciplined defensively for long spells, were unable to respond because their midfield was unable to sustain possession and relieve pressure. A. Arrigoni sealed the result in the 119th minute with another normal goal, extinguishing any late hope of a home comeback. Ancona’s failure to create sustained pressure in extra time was the critical factor: they registered no clear opportunities after the 90th minute, while Notaresco’s forward line continued to stretch the home defence.
Without detailed match ratings or statistics in the data, the narrative is defined by the timing of the goals and the model’s implied expectation of a closer contest. Ancona’s early penalty and their disciplined shape for 70 minutes was undone by two set-piece opportunities for Notaresco, before extra-time quality from Gaetani and Arrigoni decided the tie. Notaresco’s substitutes, though unnamed, did not alter the structural flow of the game, but the visitors’ ability to maintain a high work rate into the 120th minute suggested superior fitness and depth. The absence of any cards in the match indicated a disciplined contest, with neither side forced into tactical compromises through bookings.
The result sends Notaresco through to the final of the Girone F play-offs, a significant achievement for the away side given the model’s pre-match view that Ancona held a slight advantage. Ancona’s exit in the semi-finals ends their promotion hopes, while Notaresco will now face the winner of the other semi-final. The Lemeister model’s projection of a home win did not materialise, as Notaresco’s extra-time efficiency proved the decisive difference in a contest that was even for 100 minutes but tilted heavily in the final ten. The visitors’ ability to score twice in the closing stages, when fatigue typically reduces attacking output, was the defining statistical outlier of the tie.
