Progreso v Liverpool Montevideo: the model read
Progreso meet Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División - Apertura apertura - 9 at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. The model makes Liverpool Montevideo the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 28% PRO, 33% draw, 39% LIV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Liverpool Montevideo, 45% against 30%. Attacking output favors Liverpool Montevideo on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Liverpool Montevideo at 58%; double chance reads Progreso or draw 61%, Liverpool Montevideo or draw 72%.
Progreso arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 0-2 @ Wanderers, L 1-2 v Albion FC, W 2-1 @ Danubio.
Liverpool Montevideo are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Cerro, D 0-0 v Cerro Largo, W 1-0 @ Boston River, D 0-0 v Racing Montevideo.
Liverpool Montevideo hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Progreso 3-3 Liverpool Montevideo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
