Campinense defeated Sousa 1-0 in the Paraibano semi-final first leg, a result that aligned closely with the Lemeister model’s pre-match forecast. The model gave the visitors a 42 per cent win probability and projected a 1-0 away victory, which proved exact. The single goal in the 80th minute settled a contest that statistics confirm was tight, with the visitors’ discipline and the timing of the decisive moment proving the key differences.
The decisive moment arrived in the 80th minute when Everton Heleno scored a normal goal for Campinense. No assist was recorded, and the goal was not a penalty or own goal. It proved to be the only goal of the match, giving the visitors a slender advantage ahead of the second leg. The Lemeister model’s projected scoreline matched the actual result exactly, suggesting the game unfolded broadly as anticipated.
Statistically, the match was combative, with both sides accumulating yellow cards. Sousa received three bookings: Iranilson in the 24th minute, Veraldo in the 32nd, and Nathan in the 53rd. Campinense collected four yellows: Jackson in the 32nd, Wallace in the 40th, Lidio in the 52nd, and Patrik in the 71st. The flurry of cautions suggests a contest where midfield battles and defensive challenges were frequent, particularly in the period around the half-hour mark and shortly after the second half restart. There were no red cards, so both sides finished with the same number of outfield players. The card pattern may become a factor if bookings accumulate into the second leg.
The data for possession, shots, expected goals, and passing was not available for this match, leaving the goal and card count as the primary statistical evidence. Without those metrics, it is difficult to assess which team created the better chances or dominated territory. The absence of shots or expected goals data means the analysis must focus on the match’s sparse incident record and the disciplinary pattern. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read, which favoured Campinense, proved accurate in forecasting the narrow outcome.
With the first leg decided by a single goal, the tie remains open ahead of the return fixture. Sousa will need to overturn a one-goal deficit on home soil in the second leg, while Campinense hold the advantage. The yellow card count may become a factor, with both sides potentially carrying bookings into the decisive match. The result gives Campinense a narrow lead, but Sousa’s ability to respond will be crucial in the next encounter. The Paraibano semi-final now hinges on the second leg, where Sousa must find a way to breach a Campinense side that proved efficient in the first meeting. The Lemeister model’s projection of a 1-0 away win set the stage for a finely balanced tie.
