Where the market is wrong on Lions v Peninsula Power
Lions meet Peninsula Power in the Queensland NPL regular season - 20. The model makes Lions the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% LIO, 28% draw, 33% PEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1707 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 78% against 75%. Attacking output favors Lions on expected goals, 2.5 to 2.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 78%, over 2.5 goals around 81%. Draw no bet leans Lions at 55%; double chance reads Lions or draw 67%, Peninsula Power or draw 60%.
Lions arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Perth Glory, W 1-0 @ Gold Coast United, W 1-0 v Eastern Suburbs, L 1-2 @ Gold Coast Knights.
Peninsula Power are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Moreton City Excelsior, L 1-2 @ APIA Leichhardt Tigers, D 0-0 v WDSC Wolves, W 3-1 @ Eastern Suburbs.
The market prices LIO at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output