Netherlands Women claimed a 3-1 victory over Poland Women at the Asito Stadium in Almelo, a result that contradicted the pre-match expectation of the Lemeister model. The model had installed Poland as narrow favourites, giving them a 37 per cent win probability and projecting a 2-1 away victory, but the Dutch produced a dominant attacking display built on efficient finishing across the 90 minutes.
The opening goal arrived in the 24th minute. W. Kaptein found the net from open play, with E. Brugts providing the assist. Poland had already been reduced in effectiveness after A. Achcinska received a yellow card in the 19th minute, a booking that reflected the visitors' early difficulty in containing Dutch advances. The goal gave the Netherlands a lead they would not relinquish, though the score remained 1-0 at the interval. The Dutch controlled 60 per cent of possession in the first half, completing 87 per cent of their passes compared to Poland’s 78 per cent, which allowed them to dictate the tempo without ever needing to rush their attacks.
The second half saw Netherlands extend their advantage through sustained pressure. In the 61st minute, R. Leuchter scored from open play, with K. Casparij credited with the assist. This goal came during a period where the Dutch had five shots on target from eight attempts, highlighting their clinical edge in the final third. The expected goals data reflected this superiority: the Netherlands generated 2.4 xG from their 14 total shots, while Poland managed only 0.8 xG from six attempts, with their only meaningful threat coming from the penalty spot.
The Dutch then appeared to put the game beyond doubt when L. Rijsbergen found the net in the 81st minute, with W. Kaptein turning from scorer to provider with the assist. That goal made it 3-0 and capped a period of sustained pressure from the home side. The assist represented Kaptein’s second direct involvement in a goal, underlining her influence on the match. Poland did pull a goal back almost immediately. In the 83rd minute, E. Kamczyk scored from the penalty spot, giving the visitors a brief moment of hope. Any prospect of a comeback was quickly tempered, however, as the Netherlands managed the closing stages effectively, despite E. Brugts receiving a yellow card in the 85th minute for a late challenge.
In terms of player match ratings, Kaptein was the standout performer with a rating of 8.4, scoring one goal and assisting another while completing 91 per cent of her passes and creating three chances. Leuchter earned a rating of 7.9 for her well-taken goal and her hold-up play that allowed Dutch attacks to develop. Rijsbergen scored from a tight angle and registered a rating of 7.7. For Poland, Kamczyk received a 6.5 rating, reflecting her penalty conversion but limited impact from open play. Achcinska’s early booking contributed to a rating of 5.8, as she struggled to impose herself after the caution.
This result moves Netherlands to the top of their World Cup qualification group with nine points from three matches, having taken maximum points from their opening fixtures. Poland, who had entered the match as slight favourites according to the Lemeister model, now sit on four points, three behind the Dutch, with their goal difference suffering a significant blow. The three-point gap between the sides might have been expected to be narrower, but the Dutch emphatically disproved the pre-match projections with a professional performance that showcased their attacking depth and resilience.
