Where the market is wrong on Maitland v Broadmeadow Magic
Maitland meet Broadmeadow Magic in the Northern NSW NPL regular season - 20 at Cooks Square Park, undefined. The model makes Broadmeadow Magic the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 28% MAI, 26% draw, 46% BRO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Broadmeadow Magic, 75% against 58%. Attacking output favors Broadmeadow Magic on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 78%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans Broadmeadow Magic at 63%; double chance reads Maitland or draw 54%, Broadmeadow Magic or draw 72%.
Maitland arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Broadmeadow Magic, L 1-2 v Fremantle City, W 1-0 @ Lambton Jaffas, W 3-1 v Adamstown Rosebuds.
Broadmeadow Magic are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 13 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Maitland, W 2-1 v Hamilton Olympic, W 5-1 v Weston Bears, L 0-1 @ Belmont Swansea.
Broadmeadow Magic hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Maitland 0-1 Broadmeadow Magic.
The market prices MAI at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
