Where the market is wrong on Tallinna Kalev v Flora II
Tallinna Kalev meet Flora II in the Esiliiga A regular season - 30 at Kadrioru Staadion, Tallinn.
The baseline ratings are close, 1516 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors Tallinna Kalev on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.1 per match.
Tallinna Kalev arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Nõmme United II, D 1-1 v Tartu Welco, L 0-5 @ Flora II, L 1-3 v Maardu.
Flora II are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 13 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Elva, W 5-1 @ Nõmme Kalju II, L 2-6 @ FCI Levadia II, W 5-0 v Tallinna Kalev.
The market prices TAL at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output