Where the market is wrong on Tecnico Universitario v Deportivo Cuenca
Tecnico Universitario meet Deportivo Cuenca in the Liga Pro regular season - 27 at Estadio Bellavista, Ambato.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Deportivo Cuenca, 40% against 30%. Attacking output favors Tecnico Universitario on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 20%. Draw no bet leans Tecnico Universitario at 50%; double chance reads Tecnico Universitario or draw 67%, Deportivo Cuenca or draw 67%.
Tecnico Universitario arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 6 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Deportivo Cuenca, L 2-3 v Guayaquil City FC, L 1-2 @ Emelec, L 0-3 v Mushuc Runa SC.
Deportivo Cuenca are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 2 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Tecnico Universitario, D 0-0 v Mushuc Runa SC, L 0-2 @ Orense SC, L 1-2 v Manta FC.
The market prices TEC at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Deportivo Cuenca: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
