Where the market is wrong on Sogdiana v Qizilqum
Sogdiana meet Qizilqum in the Super League regular season - 18 at Sogdiana Sport Complex, Jizzakh.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 36%. Attacking output favors Sogdiana on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Sogdiana at 57%; double chance reads Sogdiana or draw 69%, Qizilqum or draw 60%.
Sogdiana arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Neftchi, W 2-1 v Qizilqum, W 3-1 @ Surkhon, W 1-0 v Andijan.
Qizilqum are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Sogdiana, W 2-0 v Mash'al, L 0-5 @ Neftchi, L 0-1 @ Nasaf.
Sogdiana hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sogdiana 2-1 Qizilqum.
The market prices SOG at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Qizilqum: a 7.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
