Where the market is wrong on Super Nova v Riga
Super Nova meet Riga in the Virsliga regular season - 24 at Jana Skredela stadions, Riga. The model makes Riga the most likely outcome at 60%, with the full read 17% SUP, 23% draw, 60% RIG.
Riga rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1795 to 1432. Recent form leans Riga, 89% against 37%. Attacking output favors Riga on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans Riga at 78%; double chance reads Super Nova or draw 40%, Riga or draw 83%.
Super Nova arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Grobiņa, W 2-1 @ Tukums, L 1-2 v Ogre United, W 2-1 @ Tukums.
Riga are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 5-2 v Vardar Skopje, W 3-2 @ Vardar Skopje, W 3-1 v Tukums, W 3-2 v Ararat-Armenia.
The market prices SUP at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on Super Nova: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output