Mafra v União Santarém: the model read
Mafra meet União Santarém in the Liga 3 promotion group - 8 at Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra. The model makes Mafra the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% MAF, 32% draw, 33% UNI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 43%. Attacking output favors Mafra on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans Mafra at 51%; double chance reads Mafra or draw 67%, União Santarém or draw 66%.
Mafra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Alverca, L 2-3 @ FC Fredericia, W 2-0 @ Esbjerg, L 1-3 @ CF Os Belenenses.
União Santarém are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Varzim, L 0-1 @ Amarante, D 1-1 @ CF Os Belenenses, D 1-1 v Academica.
Mafra hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mafra 2-1 União Santarém.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
