Mafra v Guimaraes B: the model read
Mafra meet Guimaraes B in the Liga 3 promotion group - 5 at Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra. The model makes Guimaraes B the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 33% MAF, 31% draw, 36% GUI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors Guimaraes B on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Guimaraes B at 52%; double chance reads Mafra or draw 64%, Guimaraes B or draw 67%.
Mafra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Alverca, L 2-3 @ FC Fredericia, W 2-0 @ Esbjerg, L 1-3 @ CF Os Belenenses.
Guimaraes B are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Chaves, L 1-3 v Amarante, D 1-1 @ Trofense, L 0-2 v Mafra.
Mafra hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Guimaraes B 0-2 Mafra.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
