Where the market is wrong on Flora Tallinn v Vaprus
Flora Tallinn meet Vaprus in the Meistriliiga regular season - 29 at A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 43%. Attacking output favors Vaprus on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Flora Tallinn arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Vaprus, W 3-2 @ Nõmme United, D 2-2 @ Trans Narva, W 2-1 v Kalju Nomme.
Vaprus are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Flora Tallinn, L 0-2 @ Paide, L 0-4 @ FC Levadia Tallinn, W 3-2 v Laagri.
The market prices FLO at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on Vaprus: a 17.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
