Where the market is wrong on Washington Spirit W v Denver Summit W
Washington Spirit W meet Denver Summit W in the NWSL Women group stage at Audi Field, Washington. The model makes Washington Spirit W the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% WAS, 30% draw, 28% DEN.
Washington Spirit W rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1481. Recent form leans Washington Spirit W, 68% against 47%. Attacking output favors Washington Spirit W on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Washington Spirit W at 60%; double chance reads Washington Spirit W or draw 72%, Denver Summit W or draw 59%.
Washington Spirit W arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Denver Summit W, W 2-1 @ Boston Legacy W, L 0-1 @ NJ/NY Gotham FC W, W 2-0 @ North Carolina Courage W.
Denver Summit W are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Washington Spirit W, W 2-1 v Portland Thorns W, D 2-2 v Houston Dash W, L 0-3 v Kansas City W.
Washington Spirit W hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Washington Spirit W 1-0 Denver Summit W.
The market prices WAS at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Denver Summit W: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
