Where the market is wrong on Merani Martvili v Gareji
Merani Martvili meet Gareji in the Erovnuli Liga 2 regular season - 23 at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili.
Gareji rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1489. Recent form leans Gareji, 70% against 48%. Attacking output favors Gareji on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Merani Martvili arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Gareji, L 0-1 @ Telavi, D 0-0 v Odishi 1919, L 1-2 @ Shturmi.
Gareji are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Merani Martvili, W 3-2 v Kolkheti Poti, L 0-2 v Aragvi Dusheti, D 0-0 @ Telavi.
The market prices MER at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on Gareji: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 72 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
