Al Ula beat Al-Adalah 4-1 at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, a result that the Lemeister model had strongly anticipated. The model gave Al Ula a 59 per cent pre-match win probability and projected a 3-0 scoreline, and the home side exceeded that projection by finding the net four times despite a brief second-half wobble.
The scoring began in the 33rd minute when C. Guanca finished after a pass from K. Al Shamrani. Al Ula had controlled the opening half hour without creating a glut of clear chances, but the breakthrough was clinical. Al-Adalah responded before the interval, winning a penalty that A. Bukia converted in the 45th minute to level the score at 1-1 at the break. The away side had been disciplined defensively until that point, but their discipline was already fraying: M. Al Saeed was booked in the 13th minute and A. Al Jamman followed in the 22nd.
Al Ula reasserted control early in the second half. In the 60th minute, E. Koulouris scored from an A. Adam assist to restore the home lead. Al-Adalah's resistance weakened further when J. Mutale received a yellow card in the 52nd minute, and Al Ula's A. Al Dohaim was also cautioned in the 56th. The decisive moment came in the 84th minute when A. Adam converted a penalty to make it 3-1. Michael added a fourth in the 90th minute, with C. Guanca providing the assist. A. Al Hussain was booked for Al Ula in the 85th minute, but the result was long since secure.
Without detailed possession, shot or expected goals data available, the narrative is built squarely on the goal timings and card counts. Al Ula's ability to score twice after the penalty equaliser suggests superior depth and resilience. Al-Adalah's three yellow cards before the hour mark, two in the first half, indicate a side that struggled to contain Al Ula's movement without resorting to fouls. The home side also used all four substitutions compared to Al-Adalah's three, a marginal but plausible advantage in freshness late on.
C. Guanca was central to the victory, scoring the opener and assisting Michael for the fourth. His two-goal involvement mirrors his match rating as a key performer. A. Adam also had a direct hand in two goals, scoring the penalty and setting up Koulouris. E. Koulouris's goal was his only contribution in the scoring summary but came at a vital moment. For Al-Adalah, A. Bukia's penalty was a rare highlight, but the away side lacked sustained offensive threat after equalising.
This result lifts Al Ula in the Division 1 table, strengthening their position in the regular season run-in. The three points, combined with the margin of victory, improve their goal difference and keep them firmly in contention at the upper end. Al-Adalah, meanwhile, will rue the eight-minute spell between the 52nd and 60th minutes when a yellow card and a conceded goal undid their half-time recovery. The Lemeister model's pre-match assessment of Al Ula as clear favourites was vindicated, but the home side's actual margin of victory was even more emphatic than projected.
