Kerry v UCD: the model read
Kerry meet UCD in the First Division regular season - 28 at Mounthawk Park, Tralee.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 55%. Attacking output favors UCD on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans UCD at 53%; double chance reads Kerry or draw 63%, UCD or draw 67%.
Kerry arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v UCD, L 0-4 @ Sligo Rovers, L 1-3 @ Cork City, W 3-0 v Cobh Ramblers.
UCD are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Kerry, L 1-2 v Derry City, W 4-1 v Wexford, L 1-2 v Treaty United.
UCD hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kerry 1-1 UCD.
The market prices KER at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
