Finn Harps v Cork City

Finn Harps meet Cork City in the First Division regular season - 25 at Finn Park, Ballybofey. The model makes Cork City the most likely outcome at 54%, with the full read 20% FIN, 26% draw, 54% COR.

Cork City rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1400. Recent form leans Cork City, 65% against 30%. Attacking output favors Cork City on expected goals, 2.0 to 0.7 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Cork City at 73%; double chance reads Finn Harps or draw 46%, Cork City or draw 80%.

Finn Harps arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Kerry, L 0-1 v Bray Wanderers, L 0-1 v Treaty United, W 1-0 v Wexford.

Cork City are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 8 scored and 19 conceded. Recent results: L 2-5 @ UCD, L 1-4 @ Shamrock Rovers, L 1-6 v Cardiff, L 3-4 v Longford Town.

Cork City hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cork City 4-0 Finn Harps.

The market prices FIN at 10% implied. Our number sits apart on Finn Harps: a 9.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.