Dundalk v Shelbourne: the model read
Dundalk meet Shelbourne in the Premier Division regular season - 32 at Oriel Park, Dundalk.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 43%. Attacking output favors Dundalk on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Dundalk arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v St Patrick's Athl., D 1-1 @ Waterford, L 2-4 @ Derry City, W 3-2 @ Drogheda United.
Shelbourne are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Drogheda United, L 0-1 v Derry City, D 0-0 @ Shamrock Rovers, D 1-1 @ Galway United.
Shelbourne hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
The market prices DUN at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 1.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
