Where the market is wrong on Bahia v Internacional
Bahia meet Internacional in the Serie A regular season - 25 at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors Bahia on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.
Bahia arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Internacional, W 2-0 @ Vitoria, D 3-3 @ Chapecoense-sc, D 0-0 v Vasco DA Gama.
Internacional are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Bahia, D 0-0 v Gremio, D 0-0 v Atletico-MG, D 1-1 v Remo.
Bahia hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bahia 3-2 Internacional.
The market prices BAH at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Internacional: a 9.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
