Where the market is wrong on Portland Timbers v Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers meet Minnesota United FC in the Major League Soccer regular season - 23 at Providence Park, Portland.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1456, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 45%. Attacking output favors Portland Timbers on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.5 per match.
Portland Timbers arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Austin, D 1-1 @ Los Angeles FC, W 3-1 v San Diego, L 1-2 @ Chicago Fire.
Minnesota United FC are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 13 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Orlando City SC, W 5-1 @ San Jose Earthquakes, L 1-2 v Atlanta United FC, D 1-1 @ Real Salt Lake.
Minnesota United FC hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Minnesota United FC 2-0 Portland Timbers.
The market prices POR at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
