Where the market is wrong on New England Revolution v New York City FC
New England Revolution meet New York City FC in the Major League Soccer regular season - 21 at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough.
The baseline ratings are close, 1560 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans New England Revolution, 58% against 45%. Attacking output favors New York City FC on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans New England Revolution at 52%; double chance reads New England Revolution or draw 66%, New York City FC or draw 63%.
New England Revolution arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v New York City FC, W 3-0 @ DC United, L 1-2 @ Toronto FC, L 0-2 v Houston Dynamo.
New York City FC are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ New England Revolution, L 1-2 @ FC Cincinnati, L 2-3 v Philadelphia Union, L 1-2 v Necaxa.
New York City FC hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC.
The market prices NEW at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
