Kheybar Khorramabad defeated Sepahan FC 3-1 at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium to advance in the Hazfi Cup Round of 16, overturning the pre-match expectations of a narrow home victory. The Lemeister model had projected Sepahan as marginal favourites with a 36 per cent win probability and a 1-0 projected scoreline, but the visitors delivered a clear and persistent attacking threat that the data shows was thoroughly deserved. The result was a decisive departure from the model's read, as Khorramabad's 30 per cent away win probability translated into a performance that outclassed the home side across key metrics.
The match began with a rapid breakthrough for the away side. M. Sefid opened the scoring in the fifth minute, converting after an assist from A. M. Khanzadi. Sepahan responded inside 15 minutes, when M. Askari equalised with a goal set up by A. Rezavand. The scoreline remained level at the interval, but the underlying dynamics of the contest were already shifting toward Khorramabad. The statistics reflect a team that controlled the flow of play: Khorramabad registered 54.5 per cent possession, completed 83 per cent of their passes to Sepahan’s 77 per cent, and created more chances across the pitch. The real difference came in the final third, where the visitors generated 14 total shots and six on target, compared to Sepahan’s eight shots and three on target. The expected goals reading of 1.8 to 0.9 underlined the efficiency and quality of the away side’s attacking sequences, illustrating that their dominance was not merely numerical but also qualitative.
The decisive phase arrived shortly after the restart. In the 50th minute, A. M. Khanzadi scored what proved to be the winning goal, unassisted, to restore Khorramabad’s lead. With Sepahan now forced to push forward in search of another equaliser, the visitors exploited the space left behind. A. Farsi added a third goal in the 75th minute, also unassisted, sealing the victory and delivering a clear margin of defeat for the home side. The defensive unit of Khorramabad never faced a yellow card, nor did the Sepahan players receive any bookings, reflecting a contest free of major disciplinary incidents. The clean disciplinary record suggests both teams focused on structured play rather than physical disruption, yet Khorramabad’s defensive organisation was the more effective.
The performance of A. M. Khanzadi was central to the result. He contributed a goal and an assist, demonstrating influence in both the build-up and the finishing phases. M. Sefid’s early strike set the tone, while A. Farsi’s late goal ensured the margin reflected the balance of play. On the Sepahan side, M. Askari was the only nameable player to find the net, but the team struggled to maintain the same level of chance creation after the break, managing only three of their eight total shots in the second half. The absence of any recorded substitutions meant both sides largely trusted their starting selections, and it was Khorramabad’s structure that stood up better over 90 minutes. A. Rezavand provided the assist for the equaliser, but the midfield connection was insufficient to sustain pressure after the interval.
The result sends Kheybar Khorramabad into the quarter-finals of the Hazfi Cup, eliminating a Sepahan side that had been considered the narrow favourite by the Lemeister model. For Sepahan, the cup exit at this stage represents a missed opportunity to progress on home soil, particularly after the early equaliser had briefly restored parity. The 3-1 scoreline, backed by a 1.8 to 0.9 expected goals advantage, underscores that the outcome was no fluke. Khorramabad will now await the draw with the confidence of a performance where the numbers and the scoreline aligned. Their ability to score three times away from home, while limiting Sepahan to a single goal despite the hosts’ 36 per cent pre-match win probability, marks them as a dangerous side in the competition.
