Toledo v Orihuela: the model read
Toledo meet Orihuela in the Copa Federacion semi-finals. The model makes Toledo the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% TOL, 32% draw, 26% ORI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Toledo, 60% against 50%. Attacking output favors Orihuela on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Toledo at 62%; double chance reads Toledo or draw 74%, Orihuela or draw 58%.
Toledo arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Albacete II, D 0-0 @ Albacete II, L 0-1 @ Pedroñeras, L 0-2 v Calvo Sotelo.
Orihuela are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Getafe II, L 1-2 @ Las Palmas II, L 0-2 v SS Reyes, L 0-1 @ Colonia Moscardó.
Orihuela hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Toledo 2-4 Orihuela.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
