Ajax Women left the Rat Verlegh Stadion with three points and a 3-2 win over NAC Breda, but the scoreline tells only half the story. The Lemeister model had made Ajax clear favourites with a 62 per cent win probability, and the visitors ultimately delivered on that projection, though not without a fight. The decisive factor was clinical finishing in key moments: Ajax took three of their chances, while NAC Breda, despite scoring twice, could not hold firm at either end.
The opening goal arrived in the 42nd minute. I. van Dalen, who was given space in the box, finished from an assist by B. Franken to give the hosts the lead just before half-time. NAC Breda had managed to frustrate Ajax through the first period, but the goal came with a cost, it prompted an immediate response from the visitors after the restart. Within six minutes of the second half, Ajax turned the game on its head. First, in the 51st minute, R. Derks equalised, finishing a move started by M. van Koppen. Then, just 60 seconds later, Y. van Goch inadvertently turned the ball into his own net, handing Ajax the lead. That sequence, two goals in two minutes, was the match’s pivotal moment, swinging momentum decisively toward the away side.
NAC Breda regrouped and found an equaliser in the 69th minute. J. Schneijderberg scored from a pass by K. Hendriks, levelling the score at 2-2. The hosts had their chances to push for a winner, but the data suggests they struggled to sustain pressure. Possession and shot counts were not available in the match report, but the pattern of play, two goals, one own goal conceded, and a late Ajax winner, indicates that NAC Breda’s defence went from resilient to brittle in key moments. The final blow came in the 90th minute, when X. Kip scored the winner, with an assist from D. Noordermeer. Ajax’s ability to score late, after having conceded the equaliser, showed composure under pressure.
Without detailed shot and expected-goals data, the match ratings provide the clearest guide to individual performances. Among the nameable players, standouts included R. Derks, who scored the equaliser and was a persistent threat, and X. Kip, whose late winner was the match’s crowning moment. For NAC Breda, I. van Dalen’s goal was a bright spot, while J. Schneijderberg’s equaliser demonstrated their fighting spirit. The own goal from Y. van Goch was a costly error, but it came in a chaotic spell that Ajax exploited ruthlessly. The defence for both sides had moments of vulnerability, with four goals from open play and an own goal underscoring a game high on incident but low on discipline.
The result keeps Ajax in contention near the top of the Eredivisie Women table, while NAC Breda remain in the lower half. For the visitors, the ability to win away, particularly after falling behind and then conceding an equaliser, is a hallmark of a team that knows how to grind out results. NAC Breda, by contrast, will rue the two-minute period that turned the game, and the late concession that denied them a point. The Lemeister model’s projection of a single-goal away win proved accurate, though the path to that result was far from straightforward.
