Al-Ahli Jeddah moved closer to their objective with a 2-1 victory over Al Taawon at the Al Taawon Arena, a result that the Lemeister model had narrowly favoured. The home side dominated possession and created more shots, but a superior match-rating performance from the visitors' key individuals and a well-timed second-half winner proved decisive. The final scoreline matched the model's projection of a 2-1 away win, which gave Al-Ahli Jeddah a 45% pre-match probability.
The opening goal arrived in the 17th minute when Ivan Toney scored for Al-Ahli Jeddah, with the assist credited to M. Dams. That strike gave the visitors an early foothold despite being under pressure. Al Taawon responded with greater territorial control, holding 56% of possession and totalling 15 shots to Al-Ahli Jeddah's nine. However, the home side's finishing was wasteful; they placed only four of those attempts on target, and the away goalkeeper made three saves. Al Taawon also managed 10 shots from inside the box, indicating they created presentable opportunities, but their expected goals total of 1.00 barely exceeded the visitors' 0.97, suggesting the chances were similarly high-quality overall.
Al Taawon drew level in the 55th minute through Angelo Fulgini, who scored via an assist from Flavio. Fulgini was the outstanding performer on the pitch, earning a match rating of 8.6. His all-round contribution was central to Al Taawon's ability to create chances, yet the equaliser only lasted 24 minutes. In the 79th minute, Roger Ibanez put Al-Ahli Jeddah back ahead, this time assisted by R. Mahrez. Ibanez was also impressive, recording a rating of 8.3 for his defensive and offensive contributions from the back. Ivan Toney, the goalscorer, received a 7.9 rating, underlining his influence in the final third.
The statistical contest was a study in contrasts. Al Taawon's 56% possession and 445 total passes, 384 of which were accurate at an 86% completion rate, reflected a side that tried to control the tempo. Al-Ahli Jeddah, with 44% possession and 356 passes completed at 85%, were more direct and clinical. The home side also dominated corners, taking seven to the visitors' one, but could not convert that set-piece advantage into a second goal. Defensively, Al-Ahli Jeddah were more aggressive, committing 19 fouls to Al Taawon's 13, a physical approach that yielded four yellow cards, including bookings for Enzo Millot, Saleh Abu Al-Shamat, Ziyad Aljohani, and Abdulrahman Al Sanbi. Al Taawon's two yellow cards went to Mohammed Al Dossari and Ashraf El Mahdioui. The goalkeeping metrics were identical in terms of goals prevented, with both sides recording a minus 0.17.
The result keeps Al-Ahli Jeddah well positioned in the competitive Pro League table with only two regular-season rounds remaining. For Al Taawon, the defeat is a setback, particularly given their statistical dominance in large parts of the match. While they created the greater volume of chances, the inability to convert that pressure into more than one goal proved costly against a side with the individual quality of Ibanez, Toney, and Fulgini's opposite number in attack. Al-Ahli Jeddah's efficiency in front of goal and resilience in holding their lead after the equaliser were the defining factors in a match they were favourites to win.
