Zamalek SC’s 5-2 victory over Kahraba Ismailia at the Suez Canal Stadium was a decisive statement driven by overwhelming attacking volume and clinical finishing. The Lemeister model had given the away side a 41 per cent chance of winning, making them marginal favourites, but the margin of victory surpassed that projection. The story of the match was told by the numbers: Zamalek generated 29 total shots to Kahraba Ismailia’s 15, with 10 on target against four and 21 shots from inside the penalty area, a volume that proved impossible for the home defence to withstand.
The opening goal arrived in the 38th minute when A. Sherif converted from a pass by N. Mansy. Zamalek doubled their lead four minutes later through O. Dabbagh, who scored without an assist. Just before the break, however, Kahraba Ismailia pulled a goal back in the 45th minute when M. I. Hassan turned the ball into his own net, making it 2-1 at half-time. That own goal was a rare lifeline for the home side, but Zamalek’s control of possession at 54 per cent and their superior passing accuracy of 86 per cent to 77 per cent suggested the second half would be one-way traffic.
Sherif struck again in the 52nd minute to restore Zamalek’s two-goal cushion, scoring his second of the match with no assist registered. Kahraba Ismailia responded again in the 62nd minute when O. El Said finished from a pass by A. Sulieman, making the score 3-2. That was as close as the home side would come. Zamalek’s relentless pressure told in the 73rd minute when Mansy scored unassisted, and Dabbagh added his second of the game in the 87th minute, again assisted by Mansy, completing the 5-2 scoreline.
The match ratings highlighted the decisive contributors. Naser Mansi earned an 8.3 rating, the highest of any player, reflecting his goal and two assists as well as his overall influence in the final third. Ahmed Sherif was close behind with an 8.2, having scored twice. Oday Dabbagh finished with a 7.6, his brace underscoring Zamalek’s firepower. For Kahraba Ismailia, Omar El Said was their top performer with a 7.5, while Ahmed Hamzawi recorded a 7.2. The home side’s defensive difficulties were underlined by a quartet of yellow cards, with Hamzawi, Mohamed Juhayna, and two Zamalek players in Mohamed Ismail and Mohamed Ibrahim Hassan also cautioned, along with Youssef Wael.
Kahraba Ismailia had their moments, completing 373 passes at 77 per cent accuracy and forcing three saves from the Zamalek goalkeeper, but their xG story, implicit in the shot counts, was one of limited high-quality chances. They managed only four shots on target from 15 attempts, with seven inside the box. Zamalek’s 21 shots inside the penalty area overwhelmed the home defence and goalkeeper, who made four saves but could not prevent the five goals. The away side’s discipline in creating chances from close range, combined with their superior passing network, made the result decisive.
For Zamalek, this win strengthens their position in the Premier League table, demonstrating the attacking depth that the Lemeister model had anticipated as a slight advantage. For Kahraba Ismailia, the defeat is a reminder of the gap in efficiency between the sides, despite their own respectable shot count. The margin of victory, three goals, was greater than the model’s projected one-goal away win, underscoring how Zamalek’s finishing and volume of inside-box attempts turned a likely win into a comprehensive one.
