Once Caldas overturned a narrow pre-match disadvantage to defeat Huracan 3-1 in Buenos Aires, a result the Lemeister model had seen as finely balanced, giving the visitors a 36 per cent win probability against a 32 per cent chance for the hosts. The scoreline flattered the Colombians only slightly; the underlying numbers painted a picture of a match decided by ruthless finishing and a spectacular Huracan implosion that saw them finish with nine men. Despite controlling 63 per cent of possession and attempting 352 passes to Once Caldas's 216, Huracan could not translate that dominance into a victory, undone by two red cards and a clinical display from the visitors' forwards.
Huracan struck first from the penalty spot through M. Miljevic in the 39th minute. It was a reward for their territorial control; they had won seven corners to Once Caldas's two and fired 11 of their 16 total shots from inside the box. Their expected goals tally of 1.75 was only 0.18 below the visitors' 1.93, suggesting they created enough to win an ordinary contest. However, the lead lasted barely a minute. Immediately from the restart, D. Moreno equalised for Once Caldas, assisted by M. Barrios, a goal that shifted the momentum decisively and was the first sign that Huracan's defensive structure was vulnerable.
The second half saw Huracan's discipline disintegrate. Juan Bisanz was sent off in first-half stoppage time, reducing the hosts to ten men. In the 65th minute, M. Barrios put Once Caldas ahead, set up by L. Sanchez, punishing the man advantage with a well-timed run into the box. Matko Miljevic's red card in the 73rd minute left Huracan with nine, and the match was effectively over. D. Moreno added his second of the night in the 88th minute, with an assist from J. A. Zapata Ramirez, to seal the win. The red cards were the defining difference; Huracan conceded three yellow cards and two reds to Once Caldas's four yellows, and the numerical disadvantage allowed the visitors to stretch the pitch and create clear chances.
The statistics confirm a match of high shot volume and close contest in the box despite the lopsided scoreline. Total shots were 16 for Huracan and 14 for Once Caldas, with seven shots on target each. The visitors took only one blocked shot to Huracan's four, suggesting they were more effective at getting their attempts through traffic, while Huracan's four blocked shots indicate they were often forced into speculative efforts. Once Caldas's goalkeeper made six saves to Huracan's four, a key margin that kept the hosts at bay after they had taken the lead. Despite the territorial dominance, Huracan's passing accuracy of 73 per cent was only 17 percentage points better than Once Caldas's 56 per cent, indicating the visitors were more efficient with their limited possession, often bypassing the midfield with direct passes into the final third.
Dayro Moreno was the outstanding performer on the pitch, earning a match rating of 9 for his two goals, one of which was the immediate equaliser that changed the game's trajectory. Michael Barrios, with a goal and an assist, rated 8.2 and was a constant threat on the counter. For Huracan, Leonardo Gil was a rare bright spot with a 7.6 rating, but his side's defensive discipline was fatal. James Aguirre and Jefry Zapata each rated 7.9 for Once Caldas, contributing to a cohesive away performance that maximised limited possession. Once Caldas, despite a slight pre-match underdog tag in the Lemeister model, now hold a commanding two-goal lead heading into the second leg in Colombia, with Huracan facing a daunting task to overturn the deficit, especially given they will likely have multiple suspensions to manage from their two red cards.
