Bayreuth took an early lead but were ultimately undone by a second-half Aubstadt resurgence, falling 3-2 at the Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion. The result, a win for the visitors who started as 30% outsiders in the Lemeister model, was built on superior efficiency in front of goal. Bayreuth controlled the flow of the contest on the balance of play, dominating the early stages, but could not match Aubstadt's clinical edge when it mattered most. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 home victory, giving Bayreuth a 40% chance of winning, but the visitors defied those expectations with a decisive second-half display.
The match began ideally for the hosts. L. Kraus opened the scoring in the ninth minute with a normal goal to put Bayreuth ahead. The lead lasted until the 25th minute, when Aubstadt were awarded a penalty. I. Feser stepped up and converted to level the score, a critical moment that kept the visitors in the contest after a difficult opening period. Bayreuth responded well and, five minutes later, P. Scheder restored the home side's advantage with another normal goal, making it 2-1 before the half-hour mark. The first half ended with Bayreuth in the ascendancy, having translated their early pressure into a deserved lead through two well-taken finishes.
Aubstadt's tactical adjustment or increased resolve after the interval was immediately apparent. They began to assert greater control in the middle of the pitch, and the equaliser arrived in the 63rd minute through M. Nickel's normal goal. That goal shifted the momentum decisively, as Aubstadt grew in confidence and began to dominate the territorial battle. Just seven minutes later, S. Sturm completed the turnaround, putting Aubstadt 3-2 ahead with another normal goal. Bayreuth, having conceded two quick goals in a seven-minute second-half burst, struggled to regain their earlier composure and could not find a late response, despite throwing bodies forward in search of an equaliser.
The statistical narrative is shaped by the absence of detailed shot and possession data in this fixture, but the goal sequence tells a clear story of contrasting halves. Bayreuth were direct and effective early, scoring twice from what appeared to be open play in the first 30 minutes, but Aubstadt's persistence from the penalty spot and through two further normal goals in the second half proved more sustainable. The lack of any cards or substitutes reported suggests a match played without major disciplinary incidents or significant tactical reorganisation from the bench, meaning the goalscorers themselves were the primary agents of the result.
Player ratings are not available for this match, but the named goalscorers were the decisive figures. L. Kraus and P. Scheder delivered for Bayreuth in the first half, putting the home side in a strong position with two well-taken finishes. For Aubstadt, I. Feser's penalty kept them in the contest at a crucial juncture, and the second-half contributions from M. Nickel and S. Sturm turned the result around. Their collective finishing, particularly in the final 30 minutes, was the difference between the two sides, as Aubstadt converted three of their chances while Bayreuth could not add to their first-half tally.
For Aubstadt, this victory represents a significant result on the road, particularly given the Lemeister model's pre-match assessment that gave them only a 30% chance of winning. The visitors' ability to score three times, including a penalty and two goals in a seven-minute second-half burst, proved beyond what Bayreuth's expected projection of two home goals could accommodate. Bayreuth will rue their failure to hold onto a lead after dominating the opening period, leaving them with questions about game management as the second half progressed. In the Regionalliga - Bayern standings, this result provides a valuable three points for Aubstadt and lifts them in the table, while Bayreuth miss an opportunity to consolidate their home form and will need to address their vulnerability after taking the lead.
