VfL Wolfsburg Women secured a 2-1 victory over Bayer Leverkusen Women at the AOK Stadion, a result that went against the pre-match forecast of the Lemeister model, which had installed the visitors as narrow favourites with a 38 per cent win probability.
The opening goal arrived inside the first five minutes. Janou Levels put Wolfsburg ahead, with Svenja Huth providing the assist. The goal gave the home side an early platform, though the statistics suggest the match was far from a straightforward one-way contest. Wolfsburg held 54 per cent of the ball, but Leverkusen were the more prolific shooting team, registering 19 total attempts to the hosts' 11. The visitors also created more chances from open play, with nine shots from inside the box and seven on target against five saves from the Wolfsburg goalkeeper.
The match remained finely balanced until the decisive moment arrived in the 77th minute. Alexandra Popp doubled the lead from another assist by Svenja Huth, who was proving a key creative force. At 2-0, the game appeared settled, but the visitors refused to fold. Vanessa Fudalla pulled one back for Leverkusen in the 90th minute, assisted by C. Kramer, setting up a tense finale that included three yellow cards in the closing stages. Loreen Bender had been booked for the visitors in the 59th minute, while Alexandra Popp and Cora Zicai received cautions for Wolfsburg in the 85th and 92nd minutes respectively.
Possession statistics were close, with Wolfsburg completing 452 total passes at a 73 per cent accuracy rate, compared to Leverkusen's 373 passes at 72 per cent. The home side had a slight edge from set pieces with six corners to five. From an expected goals perspective, the data shows a reasonably even contest, though Wolfsburg's efficiency in front of goal was superior. Despite being outshot, the home side put five of their 11 attempts on target, converting two of them. Leverkusen, meanwhile, had seven shots on target but found the net only once, with the goalkeeper making five saves.
The match ratings highlight the key individual performances. Janou Levels, the early scorer, earned the highest rating of 8.0 for her defensive display and goal. Alexandra Popp followed closely with a 7.9 rating, underlining her influence as a finisher and target. Svenja Huth's two assists were reflected in a strong 7.3 rating. For the visitors, Vanessa Fudalla received a 7.3 rating for her late consolation strike. Stina Johannes, who made the saves, was also notable with a 7.5 rating.
The result sees Wolfsburg pick up a valuable three points in the Frauen Bundesliga Regular Season, a result that the Lemeister model had considered less likely than a Leverkusen win. The visitors, despite controlling large spells of the game and creating high-volume shooting opportunities, were ultimately punished for not taking their chances earlier. For Wolfsburg, the combination of early scoring and clinical finishing in the second half proved decisive. The late goal conceded will be a minor frustration, but the defensive structure held firm for most of the match, repelling nine shots from inside the area and limiting the visitors to just the one goal. The victory moves Wolfsburg on in the title race, while Leverkusen will reflect on a strong attacking display that ultimately yielded only a single reward.
