Erzgebirge Aue and SV Wehen shared four goals and the points at the Erzgebirgsstadion, with the match ending 2-2. A draw was a fair reflection of the balance of play according to the numbers: possession was split exactly at 50 percent each, and the final shot count was nearly identical at 14-13 to the home side. The Lemeister model had given Aue a narrow 37 percent chance of winning, slightly favouring them over Wehen's 36 percent, and this result saw the draw at 28 percent prove the accurate projection.
Wehen struck first in the 23rd minute when M. Flotho scored, with the assist credited to S. Mockenhaupt. The lead lasted only three minutes. Erzgebirge Aue responded quickly as T. Zobel found the net in the 26th minute to level the scores. The sides went into the break tied at 1-1, and neither team had managed to create a clear advantage in the opening period.
The second half saw a similar pattern of parity, but the visitors appeared to seize control when T. Gozusirin scored in the 78th minute to put Wehen 2-1 ahead. That goal came from a spell of sustained pressure, reflected in Wehen's dominant corner count of 14 to 3. Erzgebirge Aue responded again, and their persistence was rewarded in the 84th minute. M. Seiffert scored, with J. Collins providing the assist, to bring the score back to 2-2 and ensure the points would be shared.
The data reveals a game that was finely balanced but tilted slightly in Wehen's favour in terms of expected goals. The visitors recorded an xG of 1.6 compared to Aue's 1.42, suggesting they created marginally higher-quality chances overall. Wehen also had more shots inside the box, eight to Aue's six, and their six blocked shots indicate Aue's defence worked hard to close down shooting lanes. However, Erzgebirge Aue were more efficient with their limited opportunities: they placed four of their 14 total shots on target, while Wehen also managed four from 13. The goalkeepers were busy at opposite ends: the Aue goalkeeper made five saves, while the Wehen goalkeeper was called upon only once, suggesting Wehen's shots tested the home keeper more regularly.
Discipline was a key factor in the match outcome. Wehen received three yellow cards and a red card when Niklas May was sent off in the 69th minute after receiving a second yellow. Tim Neubert had earlier been booked in the 56th minute. This left the visitors with 10 men for the final 21 minutes of normal time, and Aue capitalised by scoring the equaliser 15 minutes after the dismissal. Wehen committed 15 fouls to Aue's seven, and that indiscipline ultimately cost them the chance of a victory. The passing numbers were close: Aue completed 316 of 393 passes at 80 percent accuracy, while Wehen completed 299 of 363 at 82 percent, indicating both sides were composed in possession despite the physical contest.
The standout performers according to the match ratings were Jamilu Collins of Erzgebirge Aue with a 7.6, reflecting his contribution at both ends of the pitch. Wehen's Tarık Gözüşirin followed closely on 7.5 after scoring his side's second goal. Tristan Zobel and Moritz Seiffert, both Aue goalscorers, each received a 7.3, while Louis Lord and Erik Weinhauer rounded out the notable ratings with 7.2 each. The result leaves both sides in the middle of the 3. Liga table with three matches remaining. Aue remain just outside the promotion playoff places, while Wehen sit in mid-table, and the point does little to change their respective positions. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a narrow home win was ultimately undone by Wehen's strong set-piece threat and Aue's resilience after going behind twice.
