SV Wehen Wiesbaden left it late but emerged with a 2-0 victory over FC Schweinfurt 05 in the 3. Liga, a result that was far more comfortable than the late scoreline suggests. The Lemeister model had given the hosts a 42% win probability and projected a 2-1 home win, and while the final margin matched the projection, the visitors offered little in attack. The match was ultimately decided by a dominant second-half performance that yielded two goals in the closing stages, underpinned by a clear advantage in expected goals and total shots.
The deadlock was not broken until the 88th minute, when Moritz Flotho found the net, with Fabian Greilinger providing the assist. Two minutes later, in the 90th, I. Ati Allah doubled the lead, this time with Flotho turning provider. The goals were the culmination of a half in which Wehen steadily increased their control. The home side finished with 17 total shots to Schweinfurt's five, and an expected goals tally of 1.89 against 0.47, illustrating that the hosts created the clearer chances throughout the 90 minutes.
Wehen edged possession with 53%, completing 327 of 389 passes at an 84% accuracy rate. Schweinfurt managed 351 passes with 81% accuracy. The home side's shooting volume was notable: 8 shots on target, 6 off target and 3 blocked. In contrast, the visitors registered only 3 shots on goal and none off target, suggesting their attempts were either well-directed but saved or simply lacking in number. The defensive discipline was also a factor, as Wehen's goalkeeper made 3 saves, while Schweinfurt's was forced into 6. Corners were close, with Wehen earning 3 to Schweinfurt's 2.
The booking count was even at three yellow cards apiece, though the timing told a story of growing frustration. Sascha Mockenhaupt and Fatih Kaya were cautioned for Wehen in the 34th and 42nd minutes respectively, while Johannes Geis, Lucas Zeller and Manuel Wintzheimer were booked for the visitors across the match. The overall foul count was tight, 12 for Wehen and 13 for Schweinfurt, but the visitors were caught offside 5 times to Wehen's 3, indicating a lack of timing in their forward runs.
Moritz Flotho was the standout performer, earning a match rating of 8.2 for his goal and assist. Jordy Gillekens followed with a 7.7, while Noah Brdar (7.6), Florian Hübner (7.5), Sascha Mockenhaupt (7.2) and Donny Bogičević (7.2) all contributed solidly. Flotho's direct involvement in both goals made him the decisive figure, though the entire backline and midfield, as reflected in the ratings, played their part in limiting the visitors to minimal threat.
The result lifts Wehen Wiesbaden to 38 points from 23 matches, strengthening their position in the upper half of the 3. Liga table. For Schweinfurt, the defeat leaves them on 26 points, and the lack of attacking output will be a concern as they look to avoid being drawn into a relegation battle. The data shows Wehen were deserved winners, and the late nature of the goals should not obscure the gulf in quality on the day.
